Iran's nuclear program began in the late 1950s, most of its nuclear technology and was close to the United States and Western countries to introduce. Iran's Islamic revolution in 1979, its nuclear energy program in a state of stagnation. In the early 1990s, Iran and Russia began talks resume construction of the nuclear power plant issue, and signed with Russia, "the peaceful use of nuclear energy agreement." In 1980 the United States severed diplomatic relations with Iran against Iraq was very unhappy about Russia's nuclear cooperation has repeatedly accused Iran of "peaceful use of nuclear energy" as cover for secretly developing nuclear weapons, and has taken a "containment" policy. "9.11" incident, the United States regards Iran as state sponsors of terrorism and the "axis of evil" countries.
February 2003, Iran announced that it discovered and extracted from uranium, its nuclear program immediately by the United States of "serious questions" and aroused great concern to the international community. In September 12, the IAEA passed a resolution calling on Iran to open before the end of October in the nuclear program, in order to clarify all of its nuclear activities, and as soon as possible sign the "Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons," the Additional Protocol, allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency to carry out more as strict spot checks to terminate uranium enrichment experiments.
Britain, France and Germany in the mediation of Iran on December 18, 2003 signed the "Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons" Additional Protocol. (In the context of the nuclear issue on Long)
Long nuclear issue on the status of
In order to fully utilize nuclear energy resources, Iran since the late 20th century began its 50 nuclear power development plan, and has spent a lot of money, and the establishment of a nuclear power plant, six nuclear research centers and five uranium processing facilities.
At present, Iran's nuclear program has been developed into a critical phase, the construction phase of the nuclear fuel cycle. After the completion of the system can be for Iran's nuclear power plants and research institutions in the provision of fuel, but can also further enhance the abundance of uranium enrichment, Iran could obtain weapons-grade highly enriched uranium.
Some data indicate that Iran has been found in which the Department of uranium ore resources, and are building high-speed centrifuge technology based on enriched uranium facilities for the completion of a complete nuclear fuel cycle to prepare; Bushehr nuclear power plant in southern Iran with the help of Russia have been completed Iran is building a heavy water reactor, which would enable Iran to more effectively in the acquisition of nuclear waste from plutonium metal. According to the United States and Western countries the intelligence, Iran has entered the nuclear threshold, but has failed to obtain the necessary weapons and the manufacture of nuclear weapons-grade uranium or plutonium.
Former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami on February 9, 2003, in a televised speech that Iran had found uranium ore Yacide and has been successfully extracted from uranium, Iran will be mining uranium ore and building uranium conversion and uranium-enrichment facilities, in order to build a complete nuclear fuel cycle.
Iran in October 2003 that the Tehran Nuclear Research Center has conducted plutonium recovery trial. International Atomic Energy Agency Iran has been isolated from the estimated 100 grams of plutonium.
September 21, 2004, Iranian Vice President and Chairman of the Atomic Energy Organization of Lazaajiazade said that Iran has already started to 37 tons of "yellow cake uranium" (ie uranium mineral aggregate) for the part of uranium conversion experiments.
January 1 this year, Iran announced that it has developed a "mixed settler" from the law to extract uranium ore enrichment by the needs of "yellow cake uranium" technology. The technology to Iran in the nuclear fuel cycle independently building a step forward.
Uranium enrichment is the key to the production of nuclear fuel. Iran in October 2003 suspended uranium enrichment activities in November 2004 and the suspension of all uranium enrichment-related activities outside. But in August 2005, Iran has restarted uranium enrichment as a preparatory stage of uranium conversion activities.
Long nuclear issue according to the Chronicle
Iran nuclear issue long-standing, the United States has accused Iran from the mid-1980s began to secret nuclear weapons development program, but Iran has always denied the plan to develop nuclear weapons, and its nuclear program is for peaceful uses of nuclear energy, the establishment of a complete nuclear fuel cycle system In order to ensure that the plant is self-reliance of the nuclear fuel supply. The nuclear crisis from August 15, 2002 the Iranian opposition group National Council of Resistance of Iran to the media to expose Iran is the construction of two secret nuclear facilities started, but has continued to this day, now more than two years that the Iranian nuclear issue Summary of Events as follows:
As of April 2005, the EU and Iran held several rounds of negotiations, but on some key issues could not reach agreement, the talks deadlocked.
May 25, 2005, the three EU countries and Iran agreed at the ministerial level, the EU made in about two months promoting a technology with Iran in the field of nuclear energy cooperation and a comprehensive plan in August of that year the two sides resume negotiations.
August 5, the EU submitted a proposal to Iran recognized Iran enjoy the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy, but urged Iran to abandon uranium enrichment and all related activities, and to provide nuclear fuel from other countries.
August 8, reopening the central Iranian city of Isfahan uranium conversion facilities, Iran and the EU negotiations again deadlocked.
September 24, the International Atomic Energy Agency to vote on the Council adopted resolution pointed out that non-compliance and Iran repeatedly violated "the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons," and other relevant documents, but there is no explicit requirement immediately the Iran nuclear issue to the UN Security Council.
In early October, the Russian proposal to allow Iran in uranium conversion activities, and follow-up of its uranium enrichment activities will be transferred to Russian territory completed to ensure that its nuclear technology will not be used for military purposes.
November 24, the International Atomic Energy Agency Board decided not to the Iran nuclear issue to the UN Security Council, to enable Iran and the European Union on Russia's compromise proposal for consultations.
December 21, the EU and Iran, senior officials in Vienna on the Iranian nuclear issue contacts, the two sides agreed on January 18, 2006 to meet again to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue on the differences and seek common ground.
December 24, Russia formally proposed to Iran on Russian territory and the establishment of Iraqi uranium enrichment joint venture proposal.
January 3, 2006, Iran announced that it would restart nuclear research facilities.
January 7, Iran and Russia began talks on the Russian proposal.
January 10, the Iranian official unsealing of the nuclear fuel research facilities.
In the spring of 2006, the West and Iran in the nuclear confrontation on the issue, has entered a very dangerous stage. The controversial Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) in the April 11 that Iran has been extracted from the 3.5% concentration of low-enriched uranium; the international community to the development of Iran's nuclear program worry suddenly accelerated.
The current hard line with Iran is in concert with the United States, "The New Yorker" magazine, led by a group of Western media have made "the United States on Iran's nuclear programme targets military strike", a "use of force" 1:00 rampant. President ElBaradei and the International Atomic Energy Agency on April 28 made on the assessment of Iran's nuclear program to the report, it is almost impossible for Iran to give favourable evaluation. By the diplomatic sanctions to development, as well as the US-led Western countries on Iran's nuclear facilities the shadow of air strikes, have made the nuclear issue of Iran become the most pressing international relations, the most difficult problem.
Origin of the Iran nuclear issue
Caused the Iran nuclear issue today when the Verge of the main reasons for this has far exceeded the Iran itself, but rather a series of deeply rooted in the complicated international relations, including Iran and the West, Iran and Israel, Iran and the Arab world, between the Arab world, the United States with Europe on its nuclear program, Iran and Shiite theocratic regime between various intertwined with the interests of the conflict.
From the perspective of historical events, the origin of these relations can be traced back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, almost the entire 80th century on continuing the war between Iran and Iraq, the result of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and intensify the Arab world's internal differences , and even the "9.11" terrorist forces after the development of the western system impact.
The international community was worried about Iran's nuclear program, does not lie in Iran as a "Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty" is a signatory to the peaceful development of nuclear energy with the right, but that Iran has been unable to convince the international community of its nuclear development is entirely for peaceful Objective. Then worried that the international community, Iran to accept the international nuclear watchdog, may also be used in the manufacture of nuclear weapons while a nuclear program. Terrorism and weapons of mass destruction become scourge of the international community, a possession of nuclear weapons, and in the eyes of the West with terrorist organizations is inextricably linked to Iran, the case of the West is completely intolerable. This also explained the U.S. bottom line: Iran must not have nuclear weapons.
Iran's hardline intimidation behind with the West, Iran from the United States is the bottom line of how far? According to the basic knowledge of the manufacture of nuclear weapons, under the conditions of production of natural uranium processing needs of the so-called uranium enrichment (commonly known as "yellow cake") and then into uranium four fluoride (UF4), which further converted into gaseous uranium 6 fluoride (UF6), and then through a centrifuge uranium fluoride will be processed into low-enriched uranium (Iran announced that it is now the technological breakthrough has been made), the low-enriched uranium further into highly enriched uranium enrichment, which can produce civilian nuclear energy , but also can be used to manufacture nuclear weapons.
If Iran's statement is true, according to experts estimates, it is produced by the need to create an atomic bomb of highly enriched uranium are 13 years and seven months. However, the international community worried about is that Iran will not meet its currently has 164 centrifuge units - Iran has claimed that by the end of this year to build 3,000 units of centrifuge components. It is estimated that the scale of the unit will be able to produce one within 271 days of highly enriched uranium for atomic bombs. Tanci Iran and the nuclear plant in the capacity of design capacity is 50,000 centrifuge, assuming that the bomb landed in the United States down and completed before full operation, only 16 days will be needed to create a nuclear bomb of high concentration uranium.
Last year, Russia proposed to resolve the deadlock in its territory to establish cooperation on the nuclear fuel factory sponsors, mainly Iran's uranium enrichment to avoid the whole process of the forthcoming "yellow cake" after transfer to the stage of processing in Russia. Iran claimed that the low enriched uranium produced marked Iran mastered the whole process of uranium enrichment technology. Therefore, Ahmadinejad in the April 11 proudly declared that Iran from joining the ranks of the nuclear club.
Bent
February of this year, the Iran nuclear issue was reported to the Security Council, the international community does not abandon diplomacy in the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency to resolve the issue. But within Iran as the representative to advocate the development of its nuclear program hardline forces, at least for now appears to have become the main voice of the Iranian diplomats. This insistence on the independent development of the mentality of the Iranian nuclear industry, mainly from the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war in Iran and grew up in a new generation of leaders, not only on the question of Western nuclear non-proliferation commitments, but also dismissive of nuclear weapons taboo.
During the Iran-Iraq war, Saddam's army against Iran used chemical weapons, but at that time almost the entire Arab world and the West support the situation in Iraq, Saddam's acts of world opinion on the accusations few. In the ideological and geopolitical considerations at the core of decision-making, the World acquiescence and connivance of Saddam's behavior. Diplomatic relations between the United States Middle East Studies Association of Senior Fellow Leidajie (Ray Takeyh) in the spring of this year the "national interest" magazine pointed out that Ahmadinejad Iran-Iraq war veterans that the new generation of leaders who, to the war Their creed: the state's independence and territorial integrity can only rely on our own development to ensure that the hope that international conventions and the goodwill of the West is not feasible.
Iran appears in the United States on Israel's possession of nuclear weapons practical support, and, most recently, between the United States and India on nuclear cooperation treaty, show that the US-led Western on the issue of nuclear non-proliferation in the practice of double standards - on a "democratic country" and allies, can not ignore Israel and India "Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty" signatory to the fact that its development of nuclear weapons as well as giving the green light to the nuclear industry, has made an exception at, but to Iran as a signatory of the treaty country, only because of its and not with the United States, can be deprived of the right to use nuclear energy.
In the Western world of double standards, the independent development of nuclear energy and nuclear weapons into Iran to create the ultimate safeguard of the national dignity and the strength of double security guarantee. In both the Iraq war and the war in Afghanistan, the U.S. conventional forces displayed by the overwhelming superiority, and, more recently, on Iran's nuclear facilities rise of the use of tactical nuclear weapons arguments, it will be Iran's hardline leaders are convinced that only the Iranian nuclear deterrent in order to avoid many changes for the next Saddam Hussein or the Taliban. This view with the United States military presence in the Gulf region to the strengthening of the United States to accelerate the process of global democratization and regime change (regime change) the threat of increased building Iran of the urgency of nuclear deterrence.
Ahmadinejad that the nuclear issue is only the United States challenges the Iranian theocratic regime the first step, even though the United States to stop Iran's nuclear program, the United States will continue to Iraqi domestic human rights and democracy issues as an excuse presses forward steadily, until the 1979 Islamic revolution The regime was overthrown. United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice asked for "promoting the development of democratic forces inside Iran," 85 million US dollars funding was also considered the United States to achieve regime change in Iran One of the steps.
Tehran power structure
According to the Iranian Constitution, the state supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the spiritual leader (Ayatollah Khamenei) is the commander of the armed forces, but also to control the national propaganda machine and the state judicial power.
Iran's foreign policy decision-making body is the highest national Security Council (SNSC), the Commission is currently Larijani (Ali Larijani), who is also the nuclear crisis in Iran's chief negotiator, but Khamenei on the Supreme Security Council The decision has the final say. April 5 in the United States organized by the Foreign Relations Committee on the Iran nuclear issue discussed at the meeting, the National Iranian State University professor Mahmoud Shaliao Harland (Mahmood Sariolghalam) said that the power from Khamenei 17 historical point of view, he did not hope to achieve reconciliation with the West, while not want confrontation with the West.
On the other hand, Iran's parliament, as well as by former President Hashemi Rafsanjani (Ali Rafsanjani) leading expediency Commission (Expediency Council) have a large number of moderate reform to the position. Iran in the domestic economy, the unemployment problem has become increasingly obvious today (75% of the Iranian population less than 30 years old), the development of solving domestic problems become more top of the reform and the broad masses of the people the focus of attention.
In this unique diplomatic, internal decision-making mechanism, Iran livelihood issues have become increasingly prominent, making hopeful that the international community: Iran can be made to the internal struggle of settling the nuclear issue. This is why the international community for Iran to choose a bright future for cooperation, supported by the other sanctions, including the pressure of the soft and hard two-handed strategy.
Increasingly hardline stance in Iran today, requested the voice of waving the big stick also have been increasing. Also in the April 5 seminar on the Foreign Relations Committee, the Brookings Institution Andean Kennishibeilake director of the Policy Research Office of the Middle East (Kenneth Pollack) pointed out that in the Iranian economy growing need for foreign capital today, especially the next five Iran needs 20 billion US dollars every year, the next 10 years needs 70 billion US dollars to update the financing of the oil industry, and investment sanctions on Iran will produce fairly good results at the same time, that will not lead to similar sanctions against Iraq led to a humanitarian disaster .
Once, including diplomatic channels and investment sanctions such "soft sanctions", still unable to Iran to stop uranium enrichment activities, then more severe sanctions and even "surgical" air strikes will become an option. And the disadvantages of this option, in addition to the military aspects of the specific limitations (for example, one can not guarantee the elimination of all of Iran's nuclear facilities, and despite the elimination of their nuclear facilities, but the knowledge of nuclear technology is not eradication), including the record-high oil prices keep the international oil market have a significant impact on the Arab countries neighboring Iran domestic political and economic situations, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to resolve all kinds of consequences, such as.
Do not lightly war
A nuclear-armed Iran will break in the Near East region's strategic balance, it will affect the predominantly Sunni Muslim Arab countries on the control of power, and may create a so-called "export of Iran's Islamic revolution," and caused similar to Iraq's current Nigeria and even of the religious dispute.
But the West would have Doushujiqi side: an open war, just usher in a new Prime Minister of Iraq, probably because the open support of Iran Shiite forces in Iraq, Iraq will once again volatile internal security situation to a more dangerous situation . In addition, Western accusations Iran with the Lebanese Hezbollah militia ties, close relations with Syria, together with Iran's support for the Palestinian Hamas government will therefore be strengthened, so as to the United States in the anti-terror efforts in the region have serious adverse effects.
In addition, Saddam in the early 1990s launched the invasion of Kuwait, the Arab world was "in the United States of the Middle East's political" situation, the degree of mutual trust between the decline in national busy captive. Another Gulf region and the consequences of war, the United States is likely to strengthen again in the area of the already strong presence of the Arab countries to strengthen mutual isolation, fragmentation, which will lead the Arab world in the so-called clash of civilizations defeated again .
Therefore, the Arab world if it is not against the use of military means to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue, at least do not want to support a US military attack on Iran impression. For the United States, if not the greatest possible number of polymerization allies, especially Arab allies, launched the attack on Iran from its hegemonic image of the efforts have been in vain.
What is more serious is, in view of the United States is the world tide of "democratization", shows the war in Iraq seems to be, at least in the Middle East, the war has become the main means of promoting democracy. While a military attack on Iran would lead to such an impression of the real. This is undoubtedly the United States "democratization" of promoting detrimental to democracy is, exponentially increasing costs.
Western internal differences in the near future are almost excluded the possibility of a military strike. Despite the three European countries (France, Germany and the United Kingdom) in the past more than three years of negotiations failed, the current stand on the side of the United States asked Iran to take a hardline stance, but in the way the United States and Europe, there are still fundamental differences between: the European countries through diplomatic means to resolve their dispute is the principle of the plan is not 1:00. The United States is different, advocate the use of diplomatic means more to the moment is to consider preparations for a military strike against insufficient, a rights strategy. Europe advocated diplomatic means must be exhausted after passers-by can find it, the United States and the Bush administration is clearly an article of faith and patience.
On the Iran nuclear issue made all the intricate relationship between the solution of the problem particularly difficult. But diplomacy will not report because of the introduction of ElBaradei and stop there. Relevant parties will do their edge, as far as possible, to all parties to find a save face, at the same time, does not lead to the solution unmanageable situation. Council a battleground between the parties to the fact that, of course, does not mean that diplomacy - sanctions - an irreversible path of war. Iran's nuclear issue repeatedly, and it would mean a series of setbacks in the process of its solution. World still needs more tolerance
标签： Iran's nuclear program
